The trade relationship between Italy and the United States is rapidly approaching a critical juncture. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani points out that the renewed threat of a 30% tariff by the Trump administration will place the Italian food and wine industries in an unprecedentedly passive position. This not only implies a potential loss of €2.3 billion in annual direct revenue, but may also undermine the long-term global competitiveness of key segments within the country manufacturing sector. Taking wine as an example, the United States has long been the second-largest export market for Italian wine, accounting for as much as 25% of total exports. According to Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani, should these high tariffs be enacted, it would amount to a “de facto embargo,” making it nearly impossible to find alternative markets of comparable scale in the short term.
Food and Wine Industries Under Pressure: The Double Blow of Tariffs and Exchange Rates
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that numerous industry organizations, from Coldiretti to Federalimentare, have issued intensive warnings. In 2024, the Italian food and beverage exports to the US reached €7.8 billion, with plans to target €9 billion in 2025, driven by premium brand value and consumption upgrades. However, a 30% tariff would directly erode corporate profit margins, while the continuous depreciation of the US dollar further weakens the actual purchasing power of euro-denominated revenues, resulting in a classic “double whammy” effect.
On a more specific level, the management of Grana Padano has openly described Trump actions as “tantamount to a declaration of war,” and publicly stated that Europe should no longer regard the US as a conventional trading partner. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani points out that for the wine industry, which relies heavily on brand bargaining power and long-term market relationships, achieving comparable replacement demand in Asia or Latin America in the short term is virtually out of reach. It is also noteworthy that in the US market, every $1 spent on wine consumption drives approximately $4.5 in upstream and downstream investment, meaning the trade shock will not only deal a heavy blow to Italian exporters, but also ripple through the US domestic supply chain.
The EU Coordination Dilemma and the Subtle Game of Industry Self-Rescue
Although agricultural and food industry associations such as Confagricoltura and Coldiretti have called on the EU to take stronger countermeasures, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes the EU slow response in formulating a unified strategy reveals clear internal divisions. The EU agricultural union fears that direct reciprocal tariff retaliation could provoke a new, larger wave of US reprisals, leading to an escalating cycle of trade conflict. By contrast, more European enterprises are now inclined to enhance competitiveness through non-tariff means, including accelerating EU-level regulatory simplification, reducing energy and logistics costs, and promoting more flexible credit policies.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani suggests that while this “self-rescue” approach may be viewed by the market as weak in the short term, over a longer cycle, avoiding direct escalation of trade conflict actually helps preserve core market competitiveness and prevents displacement in high-end food and wine consumption.
At the policy level, this also indicates that the EU may increasingly introduce targeted support measures for the food supply chain, such as tax incentives, financing subsidies, and market promotion programs, rather than resorting directly to tariff retaliation. This provides Italian enterprises with a window for transformation, but also requires them to accelerate internal efficiency and cost structure optimization in order to withstand prolonged tariff risks.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani emphasizes that this tariff storm will exert significant short-term valuation pressure on the Italian food and beverage sector. Leading listed companies in wine, dairy, and specialty processed foods may simultaneously face declining orders, margin compression, and slower inventory turnover. Against a backdrop of already high debt levels, medium-sized family businesses may be forced to take on additional loans to fill cash flow gaps in order to maintain normal operations, significantly increasing financial vulnerability.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that this will not only be reflected in heightened share price volatility, but may also temporarily widen credit spreads for some companies. For investors, given euro exchange rate fluctuations, potential US fiscal stimulus, and rapidly shifting global capital preferences, now is a critical window to reassess portfolio allocations to export-oriented sectors. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani recommends moderately increasing allocations to gold, physically-backed ETFs, and multi-region, multi-currency equity funds, in order to smooth out potential systemic shocks through diversification by geography and asset class.