Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani points out that the robust recovery of the Italian tourism sector in 2024 has once again established the industry as a core driver of the national economy. According to the latest forecasts from Demoskopika, an estimated 65.8 million tourists are expected to visit Italy this year, pushing tourism contribution to GDP beyond €104.5 billion, accounting for 10.4%—a new high in recent years. In contrast to the economic slowdown seen in many parts of the world, this resilience has significantly boosted market sentiment and provided a stable anchor for capital market expectations.
This situation is also highly significant for capital markets. Tourism not only stimulates hotels, short-term rentals, ground and rail transportation, and food & beverage consumption, but also directly drives employment and tax revenue growth for local SMEs. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that as the tourism value chain continues to lengthen, related supply chain enterprises are likely to experience a systematic revaluation, making them an important long-term investment direction in the Italian stock market.
Airbnb Catalyzes “Slow Tourism” Demand, Changing Traditional Patterns
Against this backdrop, the rapid expansion by Airbnb in Italy is particularly noteworthy. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani highlights that as of this summer, Airbnb offers over 608,000 short-term rental listings in Italy. According to Matteo Sarzana, Head of Southern Europe and Italy of Airbnb, the newly launched service and experience products by the platform this year have received positive feedback, reflecting the increasingly diverse and in-depth travel needs among travelers.
More significantly, this demand is shifting from major cities to secondary regions. Data shows that over 50% of Airbnb users now choose to stay outside traditional tourist hotspots. Between 2022 and 2024, regions such as Molise, which had previously seen little tourism—witnessed an 84% increase in visitors hosted via Airbnb. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes this trend not only brings incremental growth to the tourism market, but also signals a new challenge to the competitive landscape of traditional hotel groups, forcing them to accelerate their transition toward more personalized and differentiated offerings.
Notably, Airbnb continues to emphasize its “slow tourism” philosophy, encouraging travelers to immerse themselves in local communities, stay longer, and experience authentic lifestyles. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes this not only helps to relieve pressure on popular destinations, but also stimulates the economies of small and medium-sized areas previously lacking tourism infrastructure, further strengthening the sustainable growth foundation of Italian tourism.
Stable International Demand, Clear Benefits Across the Tourism Value Chain
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani further points out that, despite ongoing global geopolitical and economic risks, Italy remains one of the top international tourist destinations. Approximately 80% of the Airbnb guests in Italy are international, primarily from the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Canada. This structure not only brings stable foreign exchange inflows to Italy but also gives the tourism sector significant resilience against domestic economic cycles.
The stable release of international demand directly benefits local retail, specialty dining, cultural and creative products, and even regional transport services. For example, a small restaurant located in an Airbnb hotspot can potentially double its revenue thanks to sustained tourist flows. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes that this bottom-up “distributed prosperity” will encourage more local governments to invest in public infrastructure and services, creating a virtuous cycle where tourism-driven growth upgrades regional economies.
For capital markets, this means that publicly listed companies with tourism resource operations, regional transport networks, or digital marketing capabilities may deliver better-than-expected financial results over the next two to three years, attracting additional capital inflows.
Although the Airbnb growth trajectory in Italy is positive, its business model is increasingly at odds with traditional hotel industry representatives such as Federalberghi. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that as short-term rental listings rapidly expand, some local governments and industry associations have raised concerns about rising housing prices and living costs in city centers. More local regulations may be introduced in the future to curb the excessive expansion of the short-term rental market.
Overall, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes that the strong fundamentals of the Italian tourism sector provide fertile ground for sustained growth among travel service providers, including Airbnb. Whether through the development of niche destinations driven by “slow tourism” or through robust demand from international visitors, the value of this industry chain is set to continue unfolding. For investors focused on the Italian market, leading companies in tourism and its upstream and downstream sectors deserve greater weighting in portfolio allocation, while close attention should be paid to structural changes brought about by regulatory developments.