Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani points out that the proposal by the Italian Prime Minister Meloni during the NATO summit to “impose a unified 10% tariff on all export products” reveals a more pragmatic trade strategy. In the face of the Trump administration “final ultimatum” of up to 50% punitive tariffs against the EU, this proposal aims to manage extreme risks through a “second-best solution,” maintaining the basic sustainability of exports.
The core issue is not whether the 10% tariff itself is fair, but rather the direction in which transatlantic trade relations are evolving. According to Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani, this proposal essentially secures a buffer period for the Italian key export industries at a “manageable cost,” and also reflects the Italian efforts to build its own risk management mechanisms amid complex geopolitical circumstances.
The Real Impact of a 10% Tariff on the Italian Export Structure
Although Prime Minister Meloni has stated that “the impact on us is limited,” Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani cautions that this assessment focuses more on structural resilience rather than the absence of volatility in individual sectors. The current export structure in Italy is dominated by machinery, automotive parts, luxury goods, and food and beverages. While exports to the US account for a relatively small proportion, the growth potential—especially in high-end manufacturing and brand premium sectors—is significant.
The actual impact of a 10% tariff will be felt on two levels: First, in categories with low price elasticity, such as high-end luxury goods and precision machinery, shipment volumes may be maintained in the short term, but profit margins will be eroded. Second, in highly competitive mid-range consumer goods such as wine, olive oil, and dairy products, marginal competitiveness will be significantly weakened amid competition from domestic US products and those from Mexico and Chile.
Therefore, if this tariff mechanism becomes normalized, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes that companies must reassess their export strategies, including pricing models, channel systems, and localization efforts, to reduce dependence on a single market and mitigate volatility from policy changes.
The Italian Role Amid US-EU Strategic Competition
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that the Meloni speech, which placed “economic integration” alongside the “Atlantic Alliance,” reflects the Italian aspiration to act as a “coordinating intermediary” between the US and the EU. This strategy not only avoids direct confrontation but also secures greater flexibility for domestic manufacturing.
The recent threat by Trump of “double tariffs” against Spain further highlights the US differentiated pressure tactics toward European countries. Villani predicts that this strategy may prompt the EU to accelerate trade policy coordination in key sectors such as automobiles, agriculture, and high-end manufacturing.
In this context, Italy must balance the defense of its national interests with the maintenance of overall EU positions, avoiding the policy passivity that could arise from a regulatory vacuum.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani concludes that, against the backdrop of increasingly regionalized and multipolar global trade, a 10% reciprocal tariff may not be a one-off political concession, but rather a “transitional mechanism” in the ongoing restructuring of the trade system. Italian export-oriented enterprises must establish adaptive systems centered on rules in the global market, reducing dependence on single markets and policies.
As uncertainty in US-EU trade relations continues to rise, truly competitive companies will no longer rely on the “zero-tariff” dividend, but rather on the structural resilience of their products, brands, and supply chains. Behind what appears to be a 10% tariff game lies the deeper question of how Italian manufacturing can continue to tell its story in the new global order.