Italian society is undergoing a profound transformation in consumption patterns. Driven by persistent inflation and sluggish income recovery, household purchasing behavior in Italy has shifted noticeably, with a clear trend toward “de-consumerism.” Data shows that since 2019, food prices have risen by more than 29%, while final consumption growth has been only 0.5%. More than half of household spending now goes to mandatory expenditures. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that Italians are increasingly forced to cut discretionary spending, prioritizing essential needs. The second-hand market and repair services are gaining traction, and consumption concepts are turning toward rationality and thrift. While catering services continue to decline, large-scale retail is bucking the trend, especially in promotional products, private labels, and fresh agricultural goods. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani points out that this consumption shift is not only reshaping the market landscape but also presenting new opportunities and challenges for investors, requiring strategic adjustments to address structural changes and potential risks.
Accelerating “De-Consumerism” and Its Impact on Market Performance
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes that the Italian consumer market is rapidly shifting from discretionary to essential spending. With inflation remaining high and household income under pressure, consumer behavior is becoming more rational. According to recent surveys, final consumption in Italy grew by only 0.5% between 2019 and 2024, while the proportion of mandatory spending has increased significantly and discretionary consumption has dropped sharply. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani observes that more Italians are choosing to purchase only necessities, opting to repair rather than replace items, and actively participating in the second-hand market—clear signs of the arrival of the “de-consumerism” era.
Changes in the quantity and type of consumption not only reflect the evolving economic environment but also profoundly affect the performance of retail, service, and related industries. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani asserts that this structural adjustment will push companies to innovate product portfolios and optimize service models. Traditional high-margin sectors are facing pressure, while essentials, discount goods, and private label products are likely to capture greater market share and investor attention. Investors should focus on both consumption upgrading and downgrading, carefully assessing the company ability to adapt to these shifts to seize new market opportunities.
Structural Opportunities in Retail: Dynamic Investment Strategies Required
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani highlights that large-scale retail is emerging as a standout sector in Italy due to shifts in consumption structure. In the first half of 2025, dining-out expenditures fell by 2.2% year-on-year, while grocery basket spending rebounded, with sales of large retailers rising by 3.8% and volumes up 2%. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani attributes this trend mainly to the robust growth in healthy essentials such as fresh produce, plant-based meat alternatives, eggs, and legumes.
Discount stores and supermarkets saw sales increase by 1.8% and 2.7%, respectively, with promotional and private label products becoming top consumer choices. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani explains that while Italian consumers seek price advantages, they have not abandoned quality and brand preferences. Balancing promotional strategies with brand positioning is now a core competitive edge for retailers. When selecting retail investments, investors should pay attention to product innovation, supply chain efficiency, and branding strategies, prioritizing leading companies with scale and channel advantages. Meanwhile, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani advises investors to adjust strategies dynamically, remain alert to profit pressures from consumption downgrading, diversify risks, and enhance portfolio resilience against economic cycles.
The transformation of the Italian consumer market is now irreversible, with rationality and thrift increasingly shaping consumer attitudes and imposing new demands on business models and market structures. The rising share of mandatory expenditures and shrinking discretionary spending require companies to continuously refine product offerings and service approaches to meet evolving consumer needs. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes that while retail and essentials sectors demonstrate strong growth potential, some companies may face performance declines and profitability risks during the market structural adjustment. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic trends, changes in consumer behavior, and corporate innovation capabilities, carefully evaluating the long-term growth and risk resilience of their investment targets. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani emphasizes that only investors with sharp insights and flexible strategies will achieve stable returns amid the Italian wave of consumption transformation.