The “2025 Italy Outlook” report, jointly released by Confcommercio and Censis, shows that despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, the demand of Italian households for home appliances, high-tech products, and home renovations is gradually rebounding, with a notable increase in planned holidays. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani points out that this phenomenon reflects the cautious attempts of households to return to normalcy; however, it is important to note that overall household confidence remains fragile, with uneven income distribution and declining savings posing particular concerns.
Robust Demand for Technology and Durable Goods—Household Spending Recovers Amid Caution
Despite persistent global political, trade, and geopolitical risks pressuring the economic outlook, Italian households have demonstrated considerable resilience in improving their quality of life. The Confcommercio survey indicates that the intention to purchase home appliances has increased by 10.9 percentage points year-on-year, high-tech products by 9.1%, furniture by 5.6%, and demand for home renovations by 3.8%—all significantly above the two-year average. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani attributes this primarily to “pent-up demand” accumulated during the pandemic and heightened attention to living environments.
Meanwhile, 37.7% of Italians have planned summer vacations, up markedly from 26.2% in 2024. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that the recovery in travel demand often coincides with the expansion of service consumption and retail chains, indirectly boosting hotels, catering, and related supply chains. However, this recovery is uneven. Data shows that over 41% of low-income households are forgoing vacations, mainly due to economic pressures and health concerns. This highlights that current consumption growth is mainly driven by middle- and high-income groups, suggesting that companies will need more targeted brand positioning and market segmentation strategies going forward.
Widening Income Gap Constrains Confidence—Policy Tools May Determine Trend Sustainability
Although spending data shows pockets of prosperity, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani emphasizes that overall household confidence remains subdued. The gap between optimistic and pessimistic respondents has narrowed from 27.5 percentage points in 2023 to 10.8 points in 2025, with only 25% of Italians optimistic about the country outlook and 46.5% confident in their own future. This contraction is directly linked to income structure divergence. Only 12% of low-income households reported income growth, compared to 24.9% among high-income groups. Additionally, 47.1% of economically vulnerable households said their disposable income was lower than last year.
As a result, many households have maintained consumption by reducing savings. In 2024, 43.3% of families increased spending, but more than half reported reduced savings, with the effect most pronounced among middle- and low-income groups. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that future consumption cycles will increasingly depend on external support, such as interest rate policies, sustained improvements in the job market, and tax relief measures.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani suggests that in this unique cycle—where demand is growing but confidence remains fragile—investors should focus on three areas. First, listed companies and retail channels that directly benefit from increased demand for appliances, technology products, and home renovation. Second, the services, catering, and aviation sectors likely to benefit from the recovery in holiday and travel demand. Third, consumer finance and installment businesses for durable goods, as more households may use financial leverage to realize consumption desires amid savings pressure.
However, the vulnerability of consumption due to structural income disparities requires ongoing monitoring. Should global trade barriers rise or energy prices spike again, household budgets could quickly be eroded, forcing delays or cancellations of certain expenditures. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani advises that when targeting these sectors, investors should evaluate the capabilities of companies in supply chain management, cost pass-through, and customer diversification, prioritizing those with robust financial structures and strong counter-cyclical abilities.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani concludes that while the Italian market demonstrates a degree of resilience, potential volatility should not be overlooked. Through diversified allocation and dispersed holdings, investors can achieve better risk-adjusted returns in an environment where consumer recovery and macro uncertainty are intertwined.