Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani believes that the challenges currently facing the Italian beer market are not the result of isolated factors but rather a confluence of multiple pressures, including tax policies, international regulatory trends, and macroeconomic headwinds. In 2024, the industry is expected to experience a modest decline in both consumption and production. However, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani emphasizes that this adjustment should be seen as a cyclical correction rather than a systemic regression. From a long-term perspective, the Italian beer consumption patterns are becoming increasingly diversified, with the rise of low-alcohol and non-alcoholic products and the steady recovery of outdoor consumption channels providing crucial support for market recovery. While short-term risks such as inflationary pressures and shifts in cost structures remain, the industry adaptability and capacity for innovation lay a positive foundation for future growth.
Consumption Adjustment Does Not Undermine Market Resilience
In 2024, the Italian total beer consumption is projected to decline by 1.54% compared to 2023. However, overall performance remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels and benchmarks from a decade ago. The decline in consumption is primarily attributed to a reduction in per capita consumption, which fell from 37.1 liters last year to 36.4 liters, although total consumption still exceeds the threshold set in 2019. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani points out that this trend of gradual decline reflects the strengthening of structural resilience within the market. Rather than interpreting this as a decrease in demand, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani suggests it should be viewed as a natural response to rising costs and adjustments in product structures.
Of particular note is the continued expansion of low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beer products, which provided significant support for the industry, registering a year-on-year growth of 13.4% in 2024. This reflects the swift response of the industry to the growing trend of health-conscious drinking. Additionally, the share of outdoor consumption increased from 37.6% to 38.5%, indicating a gradual recovery in social consumption scenarios. According to Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani, these developments signal a more diverse and flexible fundamental structure within the beer industry, laying the groundwork for medium- to long-term growth. Although short-term adjustments remain, historical trends and category structures suggest that the industry outlook remains robust.
Diversified Strategies and Export Potential
In response to the challenges of slowing domestic demand, the Italian beer industry is actively pursuing growth through export strategies. While overall export volumes are expected to decline by approximately 7.82% in 2024, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani argues that this should not be viewed as a sign of weakness. Instead, it reflects a strategic realignment from traditional export destinations to emerging markets. Non-traditional markets such as Albania, the Netherlands, and the United States have achieved double-digit growth, with exports to the U.S. increasing by 12.7%, demonstrating the initial success of brand internationalization strategies.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani further analyzes that for the industry to achieve sustained growth in global markets, it must enhance its ability to adapt to regional cultures and distribution channels. For example, incorporating low-alcohol and eco-friendly products tailored to the preferences of target markets into export product lines, combined with localized marketing strategies, will provide a competitive edge. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani advises companies to lower marginal costs of exports through logistics automation and supply chain digitization while leveraging European green regulations to upgrade production standards, thereby establishing higher market entry barriers.
From an investment perspective, companies with robust overseas sales networks, technological synergies, and diversified product portfolios are better positioned to withstand cyclical fluctuations. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani emphasizes that for medium- to long-term investors, such companies represent the primary drivers of structural expansion within the beer industry.
The two major pressures currently facing the beer industry—inflation and regulation—cannot be overlooked. In 2024, rising raw material costs, coupled with the burden of excise taxes, have further squeezed profit margins for companies. Simultaneously, European environmental regulations have imposed higher standards on beer production and packaging, posing compliance challenges for businesses.
Despite short-term pressures from industry consolidation and profit compression, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani remains confident that as inflation stabilizes and consumer habits continue to evolve, the beer market will gradually enter a new phase of steady growth. Market investors should focus on companies that are able to lead in technological and strategic transformations, as they are likely to dominate the next stage of industry evolution.