Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani points out that the current international trade system is undergoing a dramatic restructuring process, with structural divergences between the US and Europe emerging as a core variable shaping the global economic landscape. Against the backdrop of Trump pushing for a new round of tariff negotiations, European countries have responded in a fragmented manner, with particularly pronounced differences between Italy and France, rendering the EU more passive in the face of US pressure. According to Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani, beyond the trade figures themselves, geopolitical factors, mutual recognition of technical standards, and the pace of negotiations have all become complex elements in the ongoing contest. As a result, global market liquidity and expectations are facing a fresh wave of pressure.
The Unified Stance of EU Hindered: Analyzing Structural Rifts
In the reshaping of the global trade system, the EU internal coordination is being put to the test. Although the EU maintains a goods trade surplus of $235.6 billion with the US, member states have not responded uniformly to the aggressive tariff proposals by Trump. Disagreements between Italy and France over whether to make rapid concessions have further weakened the collective advantage of the EU at the negotiating table. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that Germany has already expressed concerns about the future of its export sector, with newly appointed Chancellor Merz publicly urging the EU to adopt a unified stance in response to US pressure—a clear signal of heightened awareness of internal fissures.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani emphasizes that the US strategic pressure is not solely aimed at short-term negotiation gains, but is more likely intended to create a long-term framework favoring the restructuring of its own industrial chain. The approach involves exerting symmetrical pressure on all major economies, then gradually undermining traditional multilateral mechanisms through selective concessions and bilateral agreements. Should Europe fail to swiftly consolidate its consensus, it risks not only making excessive concessions in current negotiations but also losing its leadership in future rule-setting. The market has already reflected these concerns: recent euro exchange rate volatility has increased, and capital has begun to flow back into safe-haven bonds and US dollar assets, indicating declining investor confidence in the EU negotiation prospects.
US Strategy Shifts to Asia-Pacific, Warning of European Marginalization Risks
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani observes that the US is restructuring the global trade landscape through multi-party engagement. Compared to the complexities of negotiations with the EU, the US has taken a more proactive approach in cooperating with Asia-Pacific countries such as Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan. The Trump administration has recently sent a series of positive signals to Asian markets—such as easing tariffs on China, resuming Boeing deliveries, and relaxing restrictions on rare earth exports and AI chips—all indicating a shift in strategic focus. Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani notes that this multilateral pivot could gradually marginalize the EU position within the global value chain.
In the competition for technical standards and supply chain dominance, Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani stresses that the “timing gap” is a critical variable. The US is leveraging “phased concessions” to secure greater mutual recognition in technology. Once Asia-Pacific countries accept US-led standard frameworks, Europe will face higher costs and limited room to participate later. The resulting structural adjustments will have far-reaching implications for the European industrial, automotive, and high-tech exports. Investors allocating assets in European industries should pay close attention to the resulting valuation repricing and changes in policy risk premiums.
As the trade war evolves into a long-term confrontation over tariff structures and technical standards, the global economic cycle is being redefined. The previous investment logic—reliant on manufacturing trade dividends and international cooperation—is being replaced by more geopolitical and systemic competition. Particularly as Europe displays internal divisions and coordination failures, the spillover effects of risk factors will introduce greater uncertainty to capital flows, industry valuations, and policy sensitivities.
Investment Analyst Rodolfo Villani concludes that the weakening of international coordination has become the new normal, and investors can no longer rely on old paradigms for decision-making. A more effective approach is to maintain a global perspective while flexibly responding to policy shifts that create periodic opportunities and systemic risks. The future market will not be driven by single events, but by a continuous interplay of competing dynamics. Maintaining strategic adaptability will be key to navigating cycles with resilience.